Unveiling the Real Estate Landscape: A Deep Dive into South Florida's Market

  The real estate market is a dynamic realm, ever-shifting, and responding to an intricate dance of economic factors. In the lush landscapes of South Florida, this dance has taken center stage, as revealed in a recent discussion featuring Kevin Morris (Kev &Suz) and insights from Ken Johnson, a seasoned professor at FAU. Let's embark on a journey through the key revelations and expert opinions on the current state of South Florida's real estate market. Rising Tides: The Surge in Real Estate Prices Concerns Addressed South Florida has witnessed a surge in real estate prices, a phenomenon that has been bubbling up over the past couple of years. The pressing concern on everyone's mind: Are we on the brink of a crash akin to the 2008 recession? Unraveling the Driving Forces Equity Levels Unlike the precarious scenario of 2008, South Florida's current homeowners boast significantly higher equity levels. Overleveraging is less of a concern, creating a more stable foundation. Price Increase Trends While prices are still ascending, there's a noticeable deceleration in the trajectory. There's even talk of a potential plateau in 2024-2025, signaling a shift in the market dynamics. Inventory Situation A unique challenge faced is the limited inventory, attributed to a vertical construction approach. Instead of spreading out, South Florida is building up, impacting the availability of properties. Ken Johnson's Wisdom: Navigating the Storm Enter Ken Johnson, a beacon of insight from Florida Atlantic University (FAU). According to Johnson, there's no immediate indication of a housing market crash. Instead, a significant shortage of properties acts as the driving force behind the continuous price increases. The scarcity narrative remains intact, sustaining the market's upward trajectory. Scarcity Impact The scarcity of available properties intensifies competition among buyers, sustaining the upward trajectory of prices. Johnson sees this scarcity as a typical characteristic of a market nearing its peak. Infrastructure Development Ongoing infrastructure development projects contribute to stabilizing the market. Widening highways and improving transportation options reflect positively on the overall market scenario. Navigating Affordability: Interest Rates and Beyond Interest Rate Impact Recent increases in interest rates by the Federal Reserve are discussed. However, there's an optimistic outlook, with expectations of a stable or potentially decreasing trend in interest rates in the upcoming months. Affordability Advice The audience is advised to consider the comprehensive picture of homeownership costs, not fixating solely on interest rates. The emphasis is on securing a home at the current price rather than waiting for potential rate drops. Peering into the Future: Market Trends and Forecasts Population Shifts A forecasted south-to-north domino effect in South Florida suggests Palm Beach county growing faster than Broward, and Broward surpassing Miami—a surprising trend compared to previous years. Affordability Concerns Locals feeling priced out are migrating to other parts of Florida, creating a dynamic shift in real estate dynamics. Stabilization Prediction While the overall market is experiencing a slowdown in transactions, the consensus is not about an impending crash but a gradual stabilization. South Florida's real estate market is predicted to offer a favorable environment for homeowners, sellers, and buyers. Engaging with the Insights The presentation concludes by encouraging viewers to actively engage with the content. The audience is invited to comment on topics of interest, fostering a sense of community and interaction. In conclusion, South Florida's real estate market appears to be at a crucial juncture. While the peak is in sight, the likelihood of a crash seems minimal. Instead, a gradual stabilization sets the stage for a promising future in the South Florida real estate arena.  

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South Florida home sales keep falling as price growth slows

Residential sales fell by more than 25 percent across South Florida in September, as rising mortgage rates and sky-high prices continue to propel the market slowdown. Median prices kept their upward trajectory across the tri-county region, though price growth is slowing on a monthly basis. Closed dollar volume totaled $4.2 billion in September, down more than 20 percent compared to September of last year, according to the Miami Association of Realtors. The association’s reports only include sales recorded on the Multiple Listing Service. Miami-Dade County Residential sales in Miami-Dade County declined 28 percent in September, year-over-year, according to the report. Single-family home sales fell 30 percent to 869 closings, while condo sales decreased about 27 percent to 1,309 sales. The median price of single-family homes grew 17 percent compared with the same month last year, to $568,000. The median price has been on the rise for nearly 11 years, but compared to August, it only increased about 3 percent. The median condo price in September rose about 20 percent annually, or 5 percent monthly, to $395,000.   Miami-Dade County saw $1.6 billion in dollar volume close last month for on-market properties. Single-family dollar volume totaled about $760 million, a 36 percent decrease, and condo dollar volume fell 15 percent to $832.8 million. Broward County In Broward County, residential sales decreased 25 percent, year-over-year, to 2,348 closings in September. Single-family home sales experienced a bigger drop, falling about 31 percent to 1,033 sales. Condo closings declined 20 percent to 1,315 sales. The median price of single-family homes rose 13 percent, year-over-year, to $565,000, but by less than 1 percent compared with August. The median price of condos grew 24 percent on an annual basis, to $265,000, yet stayed flat compared to the previous month. Closed dollar volume fell to $1.2 billion last month, with single-family home dollar volume decreasing 24 percent to $751 million, and condo dollar volume inching up slightly (1.5 percent) to $473 million. Palm Beach County Residential sales dropped 25.5 percent to 2,109. Single-family home sales in Palm Beach County decreased 19 percent, year-over-year, to 1,170, while condo deals declined 32 percent to 939. The median price of single-family homes grew 23 percent to $580,000, which is up less than 3 percent compared with August. The median price of condos rose 18 percent to $290,000, a slight decline of $1,000, or 0.3 percent on a month-to-month comparison. Closed dollar volume totaled $1.4 billion in September. Single-family home dollar volume declined 13 percent to $1 billion, and condo dollar volume fell 24 percent to about $371 million. (Illustration by The Real Deal with Getty) The post South Florida home sales keep falling as price growth slows appeared first on The Real Deal South Florida.

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“It’s not dead, it’s just different.” South Florida resi slowdown persists

South Florida home sales continued to fall and prices kept rising in the third quarter compared with last year’s record hot market, according to a new report. “Yes, there’s been a slowdown in sales by about a third, but inventory is roughly half the levels of pre-pandemic,” said Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel, who authors the Douglas Elliman reports. “The excess supply was obliterated during the pandemic.” Miller pointed to the supply of homes on the market in Delray Beach. Inventory of single-family homes rose 58 percent in the third quarter to 307 listings, compared with 194 a year earlier. But compared with the third quarter of 2019, inventory is down 47 percent. Even with rising mortgage rates, slowing price growth and fewer sales (compared with the “rocketship” that was the 2021 housing market), Miller said this cycle is unlike others. “This wasn’t built on speculation. This is born out of work from home, which has been a key driver of it,” he said. “The markets are performing almost uniformly. Supply is historically low and prices continue to rise.” Prices keep rising, he said, because sellers who aren’t getting a price they’ll accept don’t sell. And those sellers are also less likely to sell if they would then have to buy another home at today’s rates, which are likely much higher than their current mortgage rate. “Part of the stickiness is caused by the connectivity with a favorable mortgage rate they obtained through a refi or a prior purchase,” he said. The housing market, he said, is not “dead” but “different.” Miami coastal mainland Closings decreased 33 percent, year-over-year, to 3,889 in the coastal areas of mainland Miami-Dade, which include Greater Downtown Miami, Coconut Grove, Palmetto Bay and other neighborhoods. Single-family home sales dropped 27 percent to 1,677 closings. Supply rose to 4 months. The median sale price was $605,000, up 9 percent. Condo sales fell 36 percent to 2,212, with months of supply increasing to 4.1 months. The median price rose 20 percent to $408,000. Miami Beach and the barrier islands Residential sales fell 39.5 percent to 1,034 closings on the barrier islands of Miami Beach, Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands, Fisher Island, Golden Beach, Indian Creek, Key Biscayne, North Bay Village, Sunny Isles Beach and Surfside in the third quarter. Single-family home sales dropped 54.5 percent to 92 closings. Months of supply jumped to 10 months. The median sale price for single-family homes rose 18 percent to about $2.8 million. Miami Beach condo sales declined 37.5 percent to just over 942 closings, with 7.2 months of supply. The median sale price for condos fell slightly, by half a percent, to $516,000. Fort Lauderdale Single-family home sales in Fort Lauderdale fell 29 percent to 434 closings. The median price decreased by half a percent to $542,500. Months of supply rose to 4.3 months. Condo sales totaled 568, down 28 percent. Supply reached 2.4 months, up from the same period last year. The median price rose 29 percent to $482,500. Read more Slowdown is “paradoxical:” Realtor.com’s chief economist on Miami housing market’s future Economists predict “ugly” fourth quarter for US housing market Home prices cooled at historic rate in July West Palm Beach In West Palm Beach, 358 single-family homes traded in the third quarter, a 36 percent annual decline. Still, 4.5 months of supply were left. The median price for single-family homes in West Palm was $461,000, up 15 percent. Condo sales decreased 31 percent to 596 closings. Months of supply rose to 2.4 months. The median condo price jumped 22 percent to $219,000. Palm Beach Single-family home sales fell 59 percent in the town of Palm Beach to nine closings. Nearly a year of supply was left at the end of the third quarter, more than double that of the same period of last year. The median price actually fell 4 percent to $8.4 million. Condo sales decreased 43.5 percent to 48 closings, with an increase to about 7 months of supply available. The median price for condos jumped 133 percent to $1.6 million. (Illustration by The Real Deal with Getty) The post “It’s not dead, it’s just different.” South Florida resi slowdown persists appeared first on The Real Deal South Florida.

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